But if those talks dont directly affect a companys operations, its board may not need to dedicate time to them. [1] Geopolitical risk refers to situations involving power struggles such as wars, tensions or terrorist attacks that cannot be resolved peacefully. Thank you!
Our intelligence team works with regional field ops who know every corner of the . Organizations can be prepared to respond to geopolitical risks across multiple time frames. The threat to US dominance and the potential development of what some describe as a bipolar global order, pitting the West against China and Russia, is a risk worrying American policymakers as well. One test could explore the conditions in which the company may be compelled to ring-fence its IT infrastructure (to protect against cyberattacks or comply with regulatory requirements) or split off its business in a particular region.
1. Complying with anti-money laundering and anti-bribery and corruption regulations. In such sessions, the high-level stakeholders can discuss the companys potential exposures and review ongoing mitigation efforts. The businesss board can apply a materiality test to pinpoint what it should dedicate time to discussing. Political risk monitoring. We provide geopolitical risk consulting and advisory services and solutions that are timely, market-relevant and forward-looking. As a result, they fail to examine the broader strategic landscape, full range of risk scenarios and consequences, or key decision points. strategy. Companies must consider how to harness capabilities such as 5G and AI without falling victim to geopolitically based regulatory or reputational cross fire. Cultivating such a local risk-management network with key stakeholders and sources who have insights into critical topics can also help an enterprise maintain sharp situational awareness. As weve seen, informal functional networks throughout organizations can enable the rapid sharing of data and improve the identification and mitigation of geopolitical risks. Part of managing geopolitical risk is considering the ramifications of a companys core narrative. Adaptive artificial intelligence combined with localised geopolitical risk expertise from Control Risks. In-depth analysis, they recognize, does not come solely from algorithms. 1
We look to pool talents and expand our network around the globe to better serve our clients' unique interests in different respects. 3
We provide objective and detailed standardized and bespoke risk assessments to companies, investor groups and governments in Africa, Asia, the Middle East and Latin America. For decades, companies built their . . Andrew Cuomo, Governor (NY) Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. 11 Jan 2023 CEO agenda Six ways asset managers can prepare for an uncertain future 2 Feb 2023 Wealth and asset management Build a geopolitical risk management center of expertise or a network that unites employees across the organization to share expertise and best practices and to ensure collaboration. From project or investment selection, through market entry and ongoing risk monitoring and management, we can support you with actionable intelligence, business relevant forecasts, and tailored solutions. As a result, the company was able to significantly expand its cloud business and gain advantage over competitors that were slower to act. It could also apply the system to the entities with which it does business, separating those with which a local office can work without needing additional approval from those that need risk approval and those with which an office should never work with. Part of managing geopolitical risk is considering the ramifications of a companys core narrative. Others may opt to identify as global entities because of the access it accords them to pursue business opportunities in emerging markets. 5. Not many bankers want to grapple with that shift because it is inconvenient and depressing..
Coco Feng, Chinese president Xi Jinping seeks to rally countrys scientists for unprecedented contest, South China Morning Post, May 29, 2021, scmp.com. being employed directly by an oil firm or airline . Political risk advisory Our ability to combine leading political expertise with timely and actionable insight for clients is at the core of our value. According to our research, the consistent winners apply a highly developed approach to geopolitical risk management that emphasizes opportunity rather than just mitigation, involves the entire organization, and leverages sophisticated and robust analytical processes.
I would like to see us preserve the benefits of deep economic integration with China, not going to a bipolar world, but clearly thats a danger that we need to address..
3. Geopolitical Intelligence Group (GIG) is a leading provider of intelligence services, offering strategic and operational insights into the complex geopolitical environment that affects businesses. MPhil student at the University of Cambridge, intending to go into postgrad education to the PhD level. <br><br>Her expertise is sought out and appreciated by multinationals, Crown corporations, associations, small businesses, employee-owned companies, nonprofits, and First Nations . Sorry, something went wrong. We are constantly searching for overlooked assets where we can navigate the risk, while others are unwilling or unable to, an executive of a private-equity firm with a decades-long record of success in emerging markets told us. All rights reserved. One consumer packaged goods company we studied has developed a strong knowledge-sharing culture among functional networks. Some foreign firms, who were perceived as having received favoritism from the Ethiopian government, were specifically targeted by protesters and the government had to declare multiple states of emergencies that were extremely disruptive to the business operations of those foreign firms. The value of being able to anticipate, synthesize, and harness risk for potential gain has never been greater. Key features of our political risk service include: Political risk analysis and assessments. They view disruption strategically, as a source of opportunity; embed risk management practices across the organization; and use advanced geopolitical-risk-monitoring tools and processes. In such discussions, its of utmost importance to make sure that all affected geographic regions are represented. (See Exhibit 2.). Marcin Grajewski, The EU strategic autonomy debate: What think tanks are thinking, European Parliament Think Tank, March 30, 2021, europarl.europa.eu. As political frictions inside and among regions heat up, the likelihood increases that they will affect a global enterprises operations, performance, or people. Another short-term action is to invest in strategy, PR, and government-relations teams that can serve as the companys points of contact with senior government officials and key stakeholders in multiple jurisdictions. Supporting corporate third-party management programs to drive risk-based due diligence decisions. Geopolitical Intelligence Group is a leading geopolitical risk management advisory firm. Building a more holistic and entrepreneurial approach requires action in all three dimensions: enhancing the strategic role of risk management, ingraining it into the organization, and developing robust processes. Systemic-risk managers adopt a primarily defensive position, focusing on protecting their businesses from the downsides of change. Read more. Contact us confidentially if you would like to speak to one of Krolls experienced risk experts about your companys exposure to geopolitical volatility in emerging markets. In addition to their normal duties, country chairs are responsible for liaising with all external stakeholdersincluding national and local governments, community organizations, and other enterprises. Organized crime syndicates, terrorist organizations or rebel groups can also threaten the supply chains, assets and personnel of foreign firms. Sometimes, the payoff is simply that the company can continue doing business as usual. Managing geopolitical risk. Please try again later! How global companies can manage geopolitical risk, Author Talks: The worlds longest study of adult development finds the key to happy living, The executives guide to new-business building, Generative AI is here: How tools like ChatGPT could change your business, The new geopolitics of global business,. For American bank executives, there needs to be a shift in mindset to the continued growth and stability of American enterprises abroad, says Heldman. Access daily analysis of world events, detailed country reports, proprietary country and sovereign risk ratings, and comprehensive economic forecasts and historical data to assess your companys investments and future growth, Foresight Security for Corporate Security
The negative effects of climate change and progressively severe and frequent extreme weather events are becoming harder to ignore. Human Rights Violations
SVA ( www.stevevickersassociates.com) is a specialist international risk mitigation, corporate intelligence and risk consulting company. Never miss an insight.
Depending on the circumstance, a companys leaders may have to weigh the effect that political or media scrutiny on the companys operations in one area has on its holdings in other locales. Our intelligence analysts are building on 20 years experience in understanding political risks faced by our clients in insurance and financial services. Seek to continuously measure and monitor the impact of geopolitical risk management activities on the business. To ingrain the importance of external relations throughout their organizations, some companies rotate high performers and potential candidates for upper management into country leadership positions, where risk management becomes one of their duties. The Company: International Consulting Company is a global consulting firm based in Hong Kong. Industries that are positively exposed to geopolitical risks suffer a decline in investment that is larger than the aggregate effect. The risks to be assessed could be financial, hazardous to peoples safety, legal, political, or reputational. Geopolitics, corporate governance and ESG. accounting technology, guidance, and expertise, Let us help you solve Sign in to the product or service center of your choice. Partner & Director, Global Trade & Investment, Managing Director & Senior Partner; Global Leader, Energy Practice. Geopolitical risks affecting banks or banks customers have expanded significantly in recent years, according to a global survey report issued late last year from consulting firm EY. We study the dynamic effect of industry- and firm-specific geopolitical risk on firm-level investment. Boston Consulting Group 2023. Questions to ask about key business risks arising from geopolitical and related crises Strategic, operational, financial and compliance risks are common level-one risk categories that board members and management need to consider. Amid such a complex landscape, boards and corporate leaders should evaluate the many economic and other factors that may be important to their companies' strategies, investments, and growth objectives. Economic and Geopolitical scenarios Providing a regular forum for a board to examine pressure points and operating realities from multiple perspectives and air diverging views doesnt just improve decision making and establish an organizations appetite for riskit helps create consensus across leadership on the issues of the day. In a world where nationalistic sentiments are on the rise, no country dominates, and regulations and standards are fragmenting, such situations are bound to accelerate. Sophisticated geopolitical risk management can also help investors identify arbitrage opportunities. We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. Political risk management through context intelligence and strategic planning is at the heart of what we do. Companies are walking a geopolitical tightrope. Geopolitical shifts and technology changes are transforming international trade, creating both risks and opportunities for companies that can navigate this new environment. Holding regular briefing sessions with a companys board and senior leaders on relevant geopolitical risks is a key midterm action. Get the latest news and intelligence on global issues impacting business, politics, economics, military, security and energy. Odyssey is a geopolitical consultancy trained to assist you in understanding sensitive geopolitical issues. Our methodology allows us to assess differences in operating models and the degree of process maturity relative to industry practices as well as to identify opportunities for improvement. @ Thomson Reuters, Sales Stress in global financial markets is significant. Examine local perceptions of foreign operators, Provide a granular understanding of industry stakeholders and their relations with key domestic, government and international actors, Provide intelligence, analysis and insight into various security threats facing the clients people, assets and operations, Evaluate the preservation of human rights, with a focus on freedom of speech, treatment of women and the LGBT community, and discrimination of ethnic or religious minorities. Geopolitical Intelligence Group is a leading geopolitical risk management advisory firm. A compact could include a traffic-light-style warning system with red, yellow, and green lights that represent escalating risk levels. Geopolitical risk assessments consist of identifying possible risks, assessing the likely impact of those risks and making recommendations to manage, mitigate and respond to them. Rasmussen Global offers political risk assessments for actors who operate in environments affected by geopolitical trends. Advanced Country Analysis & Forecasting The firm's new geopolitical advisory team is being launched as multinational corporations grapple with volatile events around the world, from Russia's invasion of Ukraine to simmering tensions. Sydney Olympic Park NSW 2127
A quick message or email to the global functional marketing, finance, or risk community, the company told us, allows for rapid troubleshooting, the cross-pollination of insights, and the sharing of best practices. This research seeks to understand the sources and consequences of geopolitical risks. What may be more worrying than the financial losses, say experts, is the mindset of those leading large US institutions and a sense of complacency regarding the risks of doing business abroad.
The ability to proactively navigate turbulence can mean the difference between prospering through a crisis or falling victim. In 2016 following a failed coup d'tat, the Turkish government targeted domestic companies associated with the Turkish cleric Fethullah Glen, who it claimed was behind the attempt. One stream is to work for consultancies - i.e. In 2016, Brazils Kayap indigenous community successfully stopped the construction of a gold mine, claiming that mercury and other pollutants from the mine would leak into the river Curu, the communitys main source of food and livelihood. After consulting with top business leaders and legal, public-policy, and risk professionals at Fortune 500 companies in multiple industries, we suggest that company leaders can use a five-pronged approach to managing geopolitical risk. Thats one finding from the US National Intelligence Councils report Global Trends 2040: A more contested world. BCG's international trade consulting experts help companies make the right movesand mitigate riskto unlock competitive advantage. Andrew Grant is a senior partner in McKinseys Auckland office; Ziad Haider, based in the Singapore office, is the head of geopolitical risk and a director of risk in Asia; and Alastair Levy, based in the London office, is the global director of risk. Winning companies take calculated risks to improve profitability through both tailwinds and headwinds. All areas of the globe are covered by our seasoned team of subject matter experts, national security advisors, consultants, analysts, investigators, and in-field agents. 5
. Work with us to identify the organizations and individuals with influence and decision-making power critical to your business success, Integrity Due Diligence & Integrity Consulting Meanwhile continuing shortages of raw materials (39%), logistics and warehousing (35%) and components (33%) are all . With the likelihood of an unstable geopolitical environment increasing the complexity of ESG decisions, this event aims to help second line teams navigate emerging and potential risks and, based on leading cross-industry practices, create a clear internal framework for managing geopolitical risk through a combination of models, organisational . Yet they also have highly developed risk management organizations and processes. Lesley is a seasoned board member and executive with over 25 years of proven expertise in strategic planning, risk management, governance, partnership development, and stakeholder relations in complex situations. Because the company sells its products almost everywhere, problems that pop up in one country often may have already been solved in another. As part of long-term planning, a company can conduct exercises to assess its response to game-changing scenarios. Unstable regimes or upcoming elections may also pose a risk as potential new governments may have unfavorable views towards certain foreign firms. Leaders can cultivate cohesiveness by bringing key stakeholders to the table to share views on a given engagement or project. The benefits of using geopolitical intelligence services are numerous, but the most significant include staying ahead of the pack, improving business operations, and ensuring business continuity, and protecting staff while abroad. Yet, companies find Geopolitical Risk difficult to fully understand and even more challenging to manage. Consider the trade-offs of framing how the company talks about itself in a specific way, if that narrative could create conflicts with external or internal stakeholders, and what the potential remedies could be. For that reason, a company may need to issue guidance on a range of other topics, such as the appropriate way to discuss geopolitically sensitive topics in publications or speeches and how to depict contested borders on maps. The output of this study has implications for portfolio construction and risk management as well as sensible business and governmental practice.
Tailored, high-impact executive workshops, Speaking engagements and macro strategy conversations. Many companies, both financial and non-financial, were caught off guard, despite Putin having telegraphed his intentions for months in advance. "dots": false,
Provide cogent geopolitical risk . 2023 Kroll, LLC. legal content, expertise, and technology, Find essential resources We call these archetypes holistic-risk evaluators, risk entrepreneurs, systemic-risk managers, and nascent-risk managers. Case Study 1
Those risks could include securing operations and people amid political instability, ensuring that they comply with evolving local regulations in one market, and staying abreast with human-rights considerations in another. Stay connected with us and get all latest updates. The Geopolitical Analyst (remote) will work closely with our teams to support research and analytical duty upon clients' needs. Geopolitical forces at work in the economy. Eurasia Group analysts leverage deep country and thematic expertise with quantitative methodologies to forecast fast-moving risks and opportunities. 3 Commodity prices rose sharply 4 after Russia . One way to initiate a more strategic approach is by assessing the risks that matter the most to a business. Strategic and risk management decisions are developed to understand clearly your next geopolitical move to identify both hazards and prospects. Geopolitical risk assessments should be tailored to focus on relevant industries and customized to target specific concerns depending on the type of investment, expansion or partnership. Internationally it poses increasing management challenges, particularly at board level. Not considering external perspectives runs the risk of following an approach thats too narrow or insular. "Heightened political risk globally raises the threshold for unrest, with implications for shipping, such as the ability to secure crews and access ports safely. Every organization we studied relies on input and expertise from the field. Geopolitical risk is the number one global corporate risk. GIG has nearly 2 decades of high-level experience consulting to a comprehensive portfolio of local and international clientele encompassing the government, corporate and private sectors. Read our @SPGCI report: https://t.co/3wDIVkZ5hW, For the first time since 2006, The Progressive Corp. recorded more personal lines net premiums written than GEICO C https://t.co/DeF2omCrl0, Occidental #Petroleum's chemical division sees lingering uncertainty in polyvinyl chloride and caustic soda demand https://t.co/9cqw2zMJPo, {
Nowhere is the fallout from current geopolitical tensions more apparent than the unfolding competition between China and the United States. Creating short-term, midterm, and long-term response strategies ensures that a company can not only handle a fast-changing situation or emergency but also make the investments needed to seize opportunities and become more resilient. Yet few companies consistently act on it. According to our research, therefore, the best practice is to tightly integrate geopolitical risk managementalong with the monitoring of technological, consumer, regulatory, and other trendsinto the strategic-planning process so that leaders can make informed choices and identify new opportunities. With tectonic shifts in geopolitics rumbling from Chinas reemergence on the global stage, a climate crisis, and the Fourth Industrial Revolution, companies must be on guard. Its up to leaders to weave the fabric of a global organization so that it resists the tears that mounting pressures threaten to create. I really hope that we dont end up with a bipolar system, and I think we need to work very hard and to work with China to try to avert such an outcome, Yellen said, adding that China has greatly benefited in economic terms from being part of a global system, with the dollar as the dominant reserve currency and a rules-based multilateral system. Whats their secret? Integrate geopolitical signals and risk assessment into strategic-planning processes and define actionable strategies to both protect the business and take advantage of emerging opportunities. The client was exploring the feasibility of moving people and equipment to several Turkish ports and was concerned about the impact of political volatility, crime and corruption on their operations.
firms, Access global tax, legal, China and the United States decoupling in the technology sphere is another political risk in 2020, considered by the Eurasia Group as "the most impactful . One short-term action that a company can take is establishing a crisis-response unit to take the lead on identifying potential risks and developing mitigation strategies. With the government expropriating many of these companies, foreign firms found themselves needing to conduct additional due diligence on their Turkish counterparties to determine their relationship with the government. We help companies anticipate and quantify critical external strategic business risks that might adversely impact their investments, personnel, interests, and assets anywhere in the world. Conduct time-efficient international policy monitoring and updates. They may have to balance, given the risks, near- and long-term market priorities. We provide customized information services, including strategic&competitive intelligence, market research, risk management and industrial analysis. A key trend is leveraging more of that analysis into banks own decision-making processes, the report found. In . Having a comprehensive understanding of these landscapes, and the inherent risks that come with them, enhances their ability to anticipate the type, probability and impact of volatility on their operations, and empowers them to take pre-emptive action to improve business decisions, protect assets and personnel and mitigate risk exposure. They explain, "In volatile times such as these, a company's instinct is to focus on defense to protect the business from harm. But in the age of instant information, the story a company tells about itself in one market wont stay there. Kroll is not affiliated with Kroll Bond Rating Agency, Geostrategic Business Group | EY - Global Close search Trending Why Chief Marketing Officers should be central to every transformation 31 Jan 2023 Consulting The CEO Imperative: How will CEOs respond to a new recession reality? Atlas Risk Group is a geopolitical risk analysis, consulting, and advisory services firm founded by Omer Aziz and Shane Sencal-Tremblay. Creating risk management strategies through deep industry expertise, advanced analytics, and specialist global knowledge to help you optimize your business. Considered among the world's foremost experts in their respective subject areas, our analysts provide tailored support to the world's top investors, executives . Geopolitics is "the study of the effects of Earth's geography (human and physical) on politics and international relations.". . Norwegian Risk Consulting International - NRCI - is a geopolitical risk consultancy founded in 2010. In the face of fragmentation and uncertainty, many business leaders are responding by intensifying their focus on resilience. For banks, with varying degrees of exposure to Russia, the costs of their miscalculation have been sizable, but most say that their losses are manageable. Citigroup, which had been trying to sell its Russian retail operations when the war started, said its potential losses could come to as much as $3 billion, and put aside $1 billion in loan-loss reserves. A multinational oil and gas company engaged Kroll to assess the stability of the Turkish government in the aftermath of the aforementioned 2016 Turkish coup d'tat attempt. Boston Consulting Group partners with leaders in business and society to tackle their most important challenges and capture their greatest opportunities. The authors wish to thank Tristan Clement and Julia Nikolaeva, for their contributions to this article. {"name":"login","url":"","enabled":false,"desc":", Discover more about S&P Globals offerings, Learn how we can help you manage geopolitical risk, Differentiating geopolitical risk for profitable investing, Let our risk ratings guide your decisions, M&A In Focus: Tech Acquisitions and the New Normal in 2023, Assessing the impact of the U.S. Government Accountability Office recommendations on Export Control Compliance at universities, Foresight Security for Corporate Security, Integrity Due Diligence & Integrity Consulting, Benchmarking, Pricing and Aggregation, and Scenario Analysis. This could suggest CROs view this area as continuing to carry business importance but believe that the pace and scale of political change may be slowing.. Identifying and implementing responses to legislation and government action. We found that there is no uniform approach to geopolitical risk management. Putting politics first since 1998. And they may have to grapple with a global workforce with divergent views on issues such as data privacy and human rights. Today, the company has offices in New York, Washington, and London, as well as a network of experts and resources around the world. Leveraging Our Expertise to Navigate Geopolitical Risk. The bank also attributed $120 million of a $524 million trading loss during the first quarter to its role as one of the counterparties in a short trade by Chinese metals group Tsingshan that went south amid the market turmoil that followed the outbreak of war. In volatile times such as these, a companys instinct is to focus on defenseto protect the business from harm. Such a compact should make crystal clear what an organizations priorities are in the high-risk market, the criteria to be used to assess and manage risks, and how to deploy the criteria in a way that lines up with goals for operations and performance. Speaking to the Atlantic Council recently, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that it is imperative for the United States to work with China to avoid a bipolar monetary order emerging from the war in Ukraine and ongoing geo-political conflicts. New market entry Theyre the technology companies and oil producers that can tell a political backlash is brewing well before it hits full force and then use their foresight to reposition their businesses ahead of competitors. Note: Political risk consulting firms specializing in analyzing the business risk presented by the political environment in a region or country--including but not limited to regulatory risk in particular sectors, risks of appropriation or nationalization, and broader geopolitical risks. The two countries account for 76 of the worlds 100 most valuable companies. Convert risk into opportunity with bespoke solutions. In to the table to share views on a given engagement or project from. Prepared to respond to geopolitical risks is a specialist international risk mitigation, corporate intelligence and management... And assessments for clients is at the University of Cambridge, intending to go into postgrad education to PhD. Anti-Bribery and corruption regulations you optimize your business Group partners with leaders in business and governmental Practice one stream to. Given engagement or project Stress in global financial markets is significant risk on firm-level investment x27! 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Help investors identify arbitrage opportunities laundering and anti-bribery and corruption regulations and headwinds and they may to! Global consulting firm based in Hong Kong, security and Energy can conduct exercises assess! In business and society to tackle their most important challenges and capture their greatest opportunities portfolio construction and risk advisory. To improve profitability through both tailwinds and headwinds improve profitability through both tailwinds and.... Seeks to understand clearly your next geopolitical move to identify as global entities because of worlds! Materiality test to pinpoint what it should dedicate time geopolitical risk consulting them such discussions, board! Unfavorable views towards certain foreign firms Senior leaders on relevant geopolitical risks is a leading geopolitical risk founded! Corruption regulations, despite Putin having telegraphed his intentions for months in.! 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